Andy Burnham Secures Makerfield By-Election, Allies Push for Starmer's Departure

Andy Burnham's triumph in the Makerfield by-election marks a notable individual success, defying Labour's recent electoral setbacks. While Labour's vote share plummeted by 14 points in the Runcorn by-election and 25 points in Gorton & Denton, Burnham not only maintained the party's 2024 vote share of 45% in Makerfield but increased it by ten points.

This outcome is particularly striking given Labour's consistent national poll rating of 19% since last autumn, with no evidence of a recent surge in popularity to explain the turnaround. Concurrently, Labour experienced substantial declines in the Scottish by-elections held on the same day, with drops of 19 points in Aberdeen South and 18 points in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.

Campaign polling for Makerfield indicated that any Labour candidate other than Burnham would have likely lost significantly. His success appears to stem from two factors: he persuaded many 2024 Labour voters to return, with four out of five reportedly backing him, in contrast to national polls suggesting only just over half of 2024 Labour voters would do so again. Additionally, Burnham benefited from a collapse in support for the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens, who collectively secured only 3% of the vote, a 19-point decrease from 2024.

The Liberal Democrats' 0.4% showing was their worst ever by-election performance, while the Conservatives' 2.2% was only marginally better than their all-time low. This tactical voting likely aimed to thwart Reform, challenge the Prime Minister, or was influenced by Burnham's personal appeal and record as Greater Manchester mayor.

Makerfield, with two-thirds of its voters backing Brexit in the referendum, should have been fertile ground for Reform. However, their support increased by only three points from 2024, falling short of their gains in other recent by-elections and national polls. This failure will be a blow to Nigel Farage.

The emergence of Restore Britain, a new party advocating a stricter stance on migration, further complicated the landscape. Led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, Restore Britain secured 7% of the vote, retaining its deposit, and potentially drawing support from Reform's base of pro-Brexit, socially conservative voters.

In contrast to Makerfield, the Conservative vote surged in Aberdeen South, achieving a 25-point increase – a post-war record for the party in a by-election and its first Scottish by-election gain since 1967. The Conservatives framed this ballot as a referendum on net-zero policies, resonating in a city once sustained by oil and now facing economic challenges.

These by-election results are expected to have lasting repercussions in Westminster. A challenge to Sir Keir Starmer's leadership now seems inevitable, and the government's energy policy is likely to face intense scrutiny.