Strait of Hormuz: Three Obstacles Delay Oil and Gas Passage Despite US-Iran Deal
President Donald Trump declared the 'opening' of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday following a US deal with Iran, urging 'Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!' However, MarineTraffic data indicates a mere seven vessels have passed through the critical choke point since the agreement, with over 580 ships still waiting within the Gulf.
Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles a fifth of global oil and gas supplies, after US and Israeli strikes on 28 February. Experts point to three primary obstacles hindering a return to pre-conflict shipping levels: **security risks, unaddressed mines, and proposed transit fees**.
Hundreds of Ships Stranded in the Gulf
As of Tuesday, MarineTraffic data showed more than 250 tankers and 330 cargo vessels inside the Gulf, with approximately 75% of tankers stationary, many clustered near major oil export terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, noted that a return to normal traffic would likely begin with these trapped vessels exiting the Gulf, a movement not yet observed.
Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group stated that only an 'extremely brave captain' would attempt transit given the current conditions. Since late February, Iran has fired upon ships attempting passage without permission. The US imposed its own naval blockade on 13 April, disabling nine 'non-compliant vessels' with Hellfire missiles, according to US Central Command. While Trump announced the 'immediate removal' of this blockade, he later clarified it would remain until the deal with Iran is formally signed. Satellite imagery from 15 June depicted four US warships near the American blockade line at the Gulf of Oman entrance.
'A wait-and-see mentality' prevails among shipowners and captains, according to Das, who mentioned that some risk-tolerant companies might initiate transit, potentially building wider confidence. Michelle Wiese Bockman of Windward Maritime Intelligence recalled that an earlier Iranian declaration of the strait's opening in April was quickly reversed, leading to vessels being forced to turn back and some reporting being fired upon.
The Threat of Sea Mines
Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported early in the conflict that Tehran threatened to deploy 'various types of sea mines' if its coastline or islands were attacked. Both the Joint Maritime Information Center and Oman's Maritime Security Centre have since issued warnings about suspected 'floating' mines. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed a Senate committee that Iran had 'mined large segments of Hormuz'.
Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary General of the International Maritime Organization, stressed that mine clearance is an essential first step. Experts estimate this could take anywhere from 30 days to six months. Phillip Belcher of the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners expressed concern over this lack of clarity. Mine-hunting efforts are expected to focus on the main route through the strait, with the southern route near Oman appearing largely clear. Kelly noted that minesweepers would need to operate at very slow speeds to survey underwater environments and then clear a sufficiently wide channel for simultaneous inbound and outbound traffic. The UK and France have deployed naval vessels to the region in anticipation of mine-clearing operations, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer pledging full UK participation.
The Question of Tolls
Historically, as a natural waterway, the Strait of Hormuz has allowed free passage. While neither the US nor Iran are signatories to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the US position upholds free passage as customary international law. During the conflict, Iran sought to assert sovereignty, establishing the 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' to manage 'safe passage permits'.
Despite Trump's recent declaration of a 'toll free' opening, Iran's Fars news agency reported that under the new deal, the strait would ultimately be managed by Iran in coordination with Oman, potentially including 'service fees'. The specific services these fees would cover remain unclear. Das warned that any new payment system would 'add another spanner into the works', potentially creating a 'logistical limit or a chokehold' on daily transits. Key questions regarding enforcement, collection methods, and regional sentiment persist. Experts anticipate that while political and security issues might resolve quickly, the commercial shipping system is likely to normalise gradually.
