UK Deaths to Outnumber Births From 2026 as Population Growth Slows
New projections from the Office for National Statistics indicate that deaths will consistently outnumber births in the UK from 2026 onwards. This demographic shift is set to slow overall population growth, with the UK population now expected to reach 71 million by 2034, a figure substantially lower than earlier forecasts.
The ONS attributes this revision primarily to a sharp fall in net migration and declining fertility rates. Over the decade between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the ONS projects deaths to exceed births by nearly half a million people. James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, stated that the population is now “projected to peak in the 2050s before decreasing.”
Migration and Ageing Population
Net migration, the difference between people entering and leaving the UK, is expected to add 2.2 million to the population between 2024 and 2034. This figure is lower than previous estimates, as the ONS now regards the post-Brexit immigration peak as an anomaly rather than a sustained trend, according to Dr Madeleine Sumption of Oxford University's Migration Observatory.
The demographic changes will see pensioners constitute a fifth of the population by 2034, becoming the fastest-growing segment. Concurrently, the number of children is projected to fall by 1.6 million, while the working-age population will increase by 1.5 million—a slower rate than the rise in pensioners. A House of Lords report in December highlighted that young people would bear the brunt of successive governments’ failures to adapt to an ageing populace.
Stuart McDonald, head of longevity and demographic insights at pension consultants LCP, warned that an ageing population “will add to pressure on the NHS, the state pension and the wider public finances.” He added that the projections will intensify the debate about the realistic and fair expectation for people to work longer. Sarah Scobie, Deputy Director of Research at the Nuffield Trust, cautioned that end-of-life care services are “ill-prepared for an increase in deaths as the population ages overall,” noting that hospital care accounts for over 80% of public expenditure on health for those in their final year of life.
