Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Party Secures Election Victory Amidst Russian Pressure

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s centrist Civil Contract Party has secured a victory in a crucial election, a result seen as solidifying the nation's trajectory towards deeper engagement with Western powers. The party garnered 49.8% of the vote, with the pro-Russian Strong Armenia Alliance taking 23.2% and the Armenia Alliance 9.9%.

This election, the first since Armenia's military defeat by Azerbaijan in 2023, occurred amidst overt Russian attempts to retain Armenia within its sphere of influence. Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously warned Armenia of economic repercussions should it pursue closer ties with the West, drawing parallels to the conflict in Ukraine and highlighting the financial benefits of remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union, such as subsidised gas prices ($177.50 per 1,000 cubic metres, compared to European market prices exceeding $600).

Ahead of the vote, Moscow implemented export bans on Armenian flowers, mineral water, cognac, and produce, underscoring the material interests at play in Armenia’s geopolitical alignment. Pashinyan, in power since 2018, declared victory, stating the Armenian people had voted for “peace, regional prosperity and cooperation.”

Despite his party’s success, Pashinyan’s domestic approval has reportedly declined from 54% in 2021 to around 30%, largely attributed to concessions made in the peace process with Azerbaijan regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. This disputed enclave, home to 100,000 ethnic Armenians, was forcibly taken by Azerbaijan in 2023, an outcome for which many critics hold Pashinyan responsible.

Pashinyan’s government has sought to accelerate a US-brokered peace agreement with Azerbaijan and has initiated legislative processes aimed at EU accession, despite Armenia not yet holding EU candidate status. These moves have drawn congratulations from European powers, including France and the EU, highlighting the ongoing geopolitical contest for influence in the South Caucasus.