Swinney 'Confident' of SNP Majority in Holyrood Election, Pledges New Independence Push

First Minister John Swinney has expressed unwavering confidence that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will achieve a majority in next month's Scottish Parliament election, claiming such an outcome would provide a clear mandate for a second independence referendum.

Swinney's assertion, made ahead of the 7 May vote, projects the SNP winning the 65 seats required for an outright majority. The party has held power in Holyrood for nearly two decades, with recent polling suggesting it remains the largest political force.

However, securing a majority in Scotland's mixed-member proportional representation system is challenging. The SNP famously achieved this in 2011, paving the way for the 2014 independence referendum, and fell just one seat short in 2021.

Despite Scotland voting 55% to 45% to remain in the UK in 2014, the SNP maintains a renewed majority would reopen the constitutional question. This stance is directly at odds with the UK government, which has repeatedly ruled out authorising another referendum in the foreseeable future.

Opposition parties in Scotland have criticised Swinney's prediction. Scottish Labour's Deputy Leader, Jackie Baillie, accused Swinney of arrogance, arguing the election is about forming the next government to address perceived failures. Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay warned that an SNP majority would 'plunge Scotland into fresh constitutional chaos', positioning his party as the sole protector of the Union.

Scottish Liberal Democrats leader Alex Cole-Hamilton dismissed Swinney's claim, suggesting voters are 'rightly sceptical of SNP promises' and highlighting his party's 'costed manifesto' focused on health and living costs. Scottish Greens co-leader Gillian Mackay stressed the necessity of Green MSPs to push the SNP for meaningful change, while Reform UK argued that nearly two decades of SNP governance have resulted in 'struggling public services and broken promises'.