Andy Burnham to Contest Makerfield By-Election Amid Labour Leadership Speculation
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has announced his intention to contest the upcoming by-election in Makerfield, following the resignation of the sitting Labour MP, Josh Simons. This move places Burnham, a prominent figure in the Labour Party, on a direct path to Westminster and a potential leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer.
Makerfield: A Battleground for Labour's Future
Makerfield, a constituency encompassing suburbs of Wigan and former mining communities, has traditionally been a secure Labour seat since its creation in 1983. However, recent local council elections saw Reform UK make significant gains, reflecting a broader national trend that has intensified calls for Sir Keir Starmer's resignation.
Burnham, who does not need to resign as Mayor to stand in the by-election, would only step down from his mayoral role if he secures the parliamentary seat. A victory would significantly bolster his standing for a potential Labour leadership contest, possibly accelerating a change in Number 10 by the autumn. Conversely, a defeat could severely undermine his political ambitions.
Voter Sentiment and Reform UK's Challenge
Constituents in Makerfield express mixed views on Burnham's candidacy. Nursery worker Penelope Nelson, a self-described “fan” of Burnham, believes he understands local needs but anticipates a difficult contest. Retired resident Stan Crook was more critical, expressing disillusionment with Labour's national performance and scepticism about Burnham's motives, particularly his involvement in the now-abandoned Clean Air Zone scheme. Crook predicted a strong showing for Reform UK, stating, “I think Reform will take over. They really jumped in here in a massive way.”
Reform UK's deputy leader, Richard Tice, has confirmed the party's intent to “throw everything possible” into the Makerfield contest, aiming for a “seismic” victory. The party, which secured 31.8% of the vote in the 2024 general election, requires a swing of just over 6.7% to win the seat, placing Makerfield 29th on its target list. Polling expert Sir John Curtice noted that without Burnham, Labour would have “less than 5% chance” in the constituency, suggesting a victory for Burnham would demonstrate an ability to win seats others might lose.
The by-election is tentatively scheduled for Thursday, 18 June, coinciding with Sir Keir Starmer’s attendance at a G7 summit in France. The Green Party, while making recent gains elsewhere, has indicated a desire to avoid contesting the seat to maximise Burnham’s chances against Reform UK, with former leader Caroline Lucas advocating for a focus on “country before party.”
