Iran War Disrupts Fertiliser Supply, Threatening 10 Billion Meals Weekly, Yara CEO Warns
The ongoing conflict in Iran, initiated by US and Israeli strikes on 28 February, is severely disrupting the global fertiliser supply chain, threatening to reduce global food production by the equivalent of 10 billion meals each week. Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara, one of the world's largest fertiliser producers, warned that the blockage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is the primary cause.
Holsether explained that the current situation has led to a shortfall of half a million tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser. This reduction could decrease crop yields by as much as 50% in the initial season, disproportionately affecting regions such as Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where under-fertilisation is already prevalent.
The price of fertiliser has increased by 80% since the US and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran. Analysts predict that the impact of fertiliser shortages on food prices in Asia will become evident by the end of the year, as reduced harvests from crops planted this spring materialise. Professor Paul Teng, a food security expert in Singapore, indicated that while some countries might manage immediate planting, a prolonged crisis would inevitably affect staple crops like rice.
Holsether cautioned that this scenario could lead to a bidding war for food, where wealthier nations outbid poorer ones, pushing the most vulnerable populations into deeper hunger. The United Nations estimates that approximately one-third of global fertiliser components, including urea, potash, ammonia, and phosphates, typically traverse the Strait of Hormuz. The UN World Food Programme projects that the broader fallout from the Middle East conflict could drive an additional 45 million people into acute hunger by 2026, with Asia and the Pacific experiencing a 24% rise in food insecurity.
