US Science Agency Declares El Ni -o Underway, Warns of Extreme Global Weather
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially announced the onset of El Ni -o in the tropical Pacific, following a sharp increase in sea surface temperatures over recent months. This declaration was anticipated since the cooler La Ni -a pattern concluded late last year.
Sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific have now surpassed the 0.5C-above-average benchmark used by US scientists to define an El Ni -o event. NOAA also noted shifts in equatorial Pacific winds, indicating the atmosphere is now reacting to the warmer ocean.
Potential for a "Super" El Ni -o
Many projections indicate this El Ni -o could evolve into one of the most powerful on record. NOAA’s June outlook states a 63% probability of a “very strong El Ni -o” between November and January, potentially ranking among the largest events since 1950. Some US and European models forecast tropical Pacific temperatures exceeding 3C above average by year-end.
This natural warming phenomenon, occurring against a backdrop of human-induced climate change, could result in unprecedented regional temperatures. Professor Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office, emphasised that an El Ni -o “riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming” means actual temperatures in affected regions could be “unprecedented.”
Global Impacts and Concerns
A strong El Ni -o typically elevates global air temperatures by approximately 0.2C, releasing ocean heat into the atmosphere. This additional warming could push 2027 towards becoming another year exceeding 1.5 degrees of warming above late-19th-century levels.
The disruption will be felt most acutely in the tropics. Northern Peru and southern Ecuador, alongside parts of East Africa, Central Asia, and the southern United States, face increased flooding risks. Conversely, Australia, Indonesia, and northern South America are likely to experience heightened drought and wildfire risks, impacting agriculture and global food supplies. El Ni -o also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, though this can lead to drought in Central America.
Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, warned that for millions, an El Ni -o declaration signifies “failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again.” He highlighted East Africa’s particular vulnerability, with communities already suffering from recent droughts and floods.
While the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) concurs with NOAA’s assessment, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) maintains a stricter criterion, awaiting temperatures to exceed 0.8C above average before a formal declaration.
