Fact-checking Key Claims from the Scottish Election Debate
Energy Costs and Labour's Promise
SNP leader John Swinney suggested Labour had promised to reduce energy costs by £300, only for them to be £700 higher. While Labour had projected a £300 reduction by 2030 through low-carbon electricity, this was not a promise for immediate prices. Since Labour took office, the energy price cap has risen by £73 annually. Future predictions from Cornwall Insight suggest a potential July increase of £293 since Labour came to power, but this remains uncertain and does not align with Swinney's larger figure.
North Sea Job Losses
Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay claimed 1,000 North Sea oil and gas jobs would be lost monthly until 2030. The Energy Transition Institute (ETI) clarified its forecast, stating 600 to 800 direct job losses per month, with the remainder being 'indirect' losses. Over the past decade, 70,000 jobs have been lost in total, equating to approximately 583 per month.
NHS Waiting Lists in Scotland and England
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar asserted that 5,000 people in Scotland wait over two years for NHS treatment, compared to 300 in England, a nation ten times larger. Public Health Scotland (PHS) data, however, records 'ongoing waits' rather than unique individuals, with 5,291 such instances over 104 weeks as of February. Direct comparisons between Scottish and English waiting lists are cautioned against by the Office for National Statistics and PHS due to differing recording methodologies. NHS England data showed 200 patients waiting over two years to start treatment at the end of January.
Asylum Seeker Housing in Glasgow
Reform Scotland's leader Malcolm Offord claimed asylum seekers in Glasgow are 'jumping the queue' for housing. While Glasgow does house the largest number of asylum seekers, those granted leave to remain often apply to the council as homeless. Councils have a statutory duty to house the 'unintentionally homeless,' which can include refugee families, potentially leading to the perception of queue-jumping by other families awaiting permanent accommodation.
NHS Waiting List Totals and Social Care Vacancies
Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton stated 800,000 Scots are on an NHS waiting list. PHS indicates no single database allows for a definitive total. Their estimate shows 578,804 individuals were on at least one waiting list as of February, a figure that does not encompass all types of waiting lists.
Scottish Greens' Ross Greer argued that even if all school leavers entered social care, there wouldn't be enough workers. While 44% of registered care services reported vacancies in 2024, the survey does not provide exact numbers. Data suggests that the annual number of school leavers (55,801) would be more than sufficient to fill the estimated 6.4% of total workforce vacancies in the social care sector.
