Former Minister Alan Milburn Warns 1.25 Million Young People Face Unemployment by 2031
Former minister Alan Milburn has issued a stark warning that 1.25 million young people, equating to one in six individuals aged 16 to 24, are projected to be out of education, employment, or training (NEET) by 2031 unless immediate action is taken. Milburn’s review contends that the UK’s existing systems for education, health, and welfare are “no longer fit for purpose” in preparing young people for the labour market.
Milburn highlighted a critical shortage of entry-level job opportunities, stating that “the first rung of the career ladder has thinned” and is “out of reach” for many. He described a “hopeless catch-22” where employers demand work experience that young people struggle to acquire. Current figures show the unemployment rate for 16 to 24-year-olds stands at 16.2%, more than triple the broader unemployment rate and the highest since 2014.
The review, commissioned by Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, identified 957,000 young people as NEET between October and December 2025, with over half not actively seeking work. Milburn refuted the idea that young people lack motivation, noting that 84% of NEET individuals surveyed expressed a desire for a job or training. He emphasised, “This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past.”
Government Response and Business Concerns
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden acknowledged the findings, stating the government is “already taking action.” He pointed to initiatives such as financial incentives for companies to hire young people, increased apprenticeship opportunities, and “early intervention” measures including special educational needs support and the removal of the two-child benefit cap. However, Milburn’s report indicates a significant disparity in spending, with approximately £25 allocated to benefits for every £1 spent on employment support for young people.
The report also detailed a decline of 1.6 million low- and medium-skilled jobs over the past two decades, while higher-skilled positions increased by 6.3 million. The hospitality sector, a traditional entry point for many young people, has seen vacancies halve in the last four years. Lord Simon Wolfson, boss of Next, reported that applications for retail vacancies have almost doubled in two years, from 10 to 19 per shop opening.
The Confederation of British Industry’s chief executive, Rain Newton-Smith, described the report as exposing “a tragic waste of potential.” Some employers attribute difficulties in hiring young people to increased minimum wages and higher employer National Insurance contributions, although the government defends these policies. The review did not propose solutions, which are expected in a subsequent final report.
