Reform UK Secures 30% of Declared Seats in Local Elections, Signalling Fragmented UK Politics
Early results from the recent local elections confirm a highly fragmented political environment across Britain. Reform UK has demonstrated a strong performance, securing 30% of the seats declared thus far.
Analysis of over 500 wards indicates Reform UK achieved an average vote share of 26%, placing them ahead of their rivals. This success was most pronounced in areas that heavily supported Brexit in 2016; in wards where over 60% voted to Leave, Reform's support averaged 41%. Notably, Reform gained control of Newcastle-under-Lyme Council, an area with significant pro-Brexit sentiment.
The Green Party also saw progress, with an average of 16% of the vote in declared wards, marking a seven-point increase from 2022. Despite this, their net gain stands at only 25 seats, primarily due to securing numerous second and third places rather than outright victories.
In contrast, both the Labour and Conservative parties have experienced considerable declines in support. Labour's vote share is down 16 points since 2022, with particularly sharp falls in traditionally strongholds and wards with large Muslim populations. This has led to a loss of 250 seats and control of eight councils. Conservative support is down 11 points since 2022, with losses concentrated in areas where Reform's presence is strongest, underscoring the electoral threat posed by the latter. The Conservatives have lost a net 137 seats, though they did regain control of Westminster Council, largely due to a sharp decline in Labour support there rather than their own gains.
The Liberal Democrats, despite anticipating significant gains, have seen limited progress. Their support is down three points compared to both 2022 and 2024. While they gained control of Portsmouth and Stockport, they lost Hull, with their seat gains primarily resulting from capitalising on Labour or Conservative losses rather than independent growth.
