Trump Presidency Sees Million-Dollar Bets Placed Minutes Before Major Policy Announcements
Throughout former US President Donald Trump's second term, traders placed millions of dollars in wagers on financial markets mere hours, or even minutes, before his significant public announcements. This pattern, identified through an examination of trade volume data matched against Trump's market-moving statements, has raised questions about potential illegal insider trading.
Some analysts suggest these consistent pre-announcement surges bear the hallmarks of insider trading, where individuals exploit non-public information for financial gain. Others contend the situation is more complex, suggesting some traders have become adept at anticipating presidential interventions.
Oil Market Movements and Middle East Policy
Significant movements were observed in oil futures. For example, 47 minutes before a reporter publicly disclosed Trump's statement to CBS News that the US-Israel conflict with Iran was "very complete, pretty much," a substantial surge of bets was placed on oil prices falling. These traders would have profited millions as oil prices subsequently plunged by approximately 25%.
Similarly, on 23 March, following Trump's threat to "obliterate" Iran's power plants, he posted on Truth Social about "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Tehran. Fourteen minutes prior to this unexpected announcement, an unusually high volume of bets was recorded on the US oil price falling, and on Brent crude contracts. An oil analyst described these trades as "abnormal, for sure."
Tariffs and Stock Market Surges
Beyond Middle East policy, unusual trading also preceded Trump's tariff announcements. On 2 April last year, markets globally plummeted after Trump declared "Liberation Day" tariffs. A week later, when he announced a 90-day "pause" on most levies, stock markets soared, with the S&P 500 index gaining 9.5%. Prior to this, an unusually high number of bets were placed on a fund tracking the S&P 500, with over 10,000 contracts traded per minute just after 18:00 BST, compared to hundreds earlier that day. Some traders wagered over USD#2 million, potentially yielding profits close to USD#20 million.
Senior Democrats in the US Senate subsequently urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate if Trump's announcements "enriched administration insiders and friends." The SEC declined to comment on these allegations, as did the White House regarding the unusual trading activities.
Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny
The growth of online prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, has also drawn attention. Donald Trump Jr., an investor and advisory board member for Polymarket and a strategic advisor to Kalshi, has been contacted for comment. One Polymarket user, 'Burdensome-Mix', placed USD#32,500 on Nicolás Maduro being out of office by January 2026. When Maduro was ousted by US special forces, the account won USD#436,000, subsequently changing its username and ceasing activity.
Furthermore, six accounts created on Polymarket in February wagered on a US strike on Iran by 28 February. When confirmed, these accounts collectively earned USD#1.2 million. One account later made USD#163,000 betting on a US-Iran ceasefire by 7 April. Polymarket stated it maintains "the highest standards of market integrity" and works with regulators. The White House, in an internal email, warned staff against using insider information on these platforms.
Insider trading has been illegal for government officials in the US since 2012, though no prosecutions have occurred under this law. Paul Oudin, a financial regulation law professor, notes enforcement is challenging without identifying the information source. Despite clear indications of individuals being privy to Trump's declarations, prosecution remains unlikely.
