Andy Burnham Leadership Bid Triggers UK Borrowing Cost Increase, Pound Decline
UK government borrowing costs increased, and the pound Sterling depreciated, as Andy Burnham's entry into the Labour leadership contest, through a by-election bid, unsettled financial markets. While other European government borrowing costs also rose, the UK's movements were more pronounced, with analysts pointing to market anxieties over a potential Burnham-led government's approach to public finances.
The 10-year bond yield, reflecting the interest rate on a decade-long loan to the UK government, climbed to 5.11% on Friday from 4.99% at the day's opening. Concurrently, the pound fell by 0.3% against the dollar, reaching $1.3371, extending a sharp decline initiated on Thursday after Burnham's announcement.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, noted the pound's weekly depreciation stood at 1.5%. "This indicates that Burnham is perceived as the least market-friendly candidate among the contenders, as Wes Streeting's prior resignation did not provoke a comparable negative reaction in the pound," Brooks stated. Long-term borrowing costs also rose, with the yield on 30-year gilts reaching 5.779%.
Despite a general rise in government borrowing costs across Europe due to ongoing concerns that the Iran conflict could inflate energy prices and subsequently inflation, investors specifically assessed a Burnham government as more likely to exacerbate Britain's already substantial public borrowing. In a previous interview, Burnham had expressed a desire for the government to "get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets."
Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, told Reuters, "Market fears centre on Burnham's perceived left-leaning stance, potentially leading to further deficit expansion." UK stocks also saw declines on Friday, with the FTSE 100 index down by 0.6%.
Burnham, currently the Mayor of Greater Manchester, confirmed his intention to seek a parliamentary seat after MP Josh Simons agreed to step aside. Burnham declared, "We will change Labour for the better and make it a party you can believe in again," promising to "make politics work properly for people." However, his path to the party's top position is contingent on securing local party selection for the Makerfield constituency and subsequently winning the by-election, a contest Reform UK could make competitive.
