Makerfield By-Election: Andy Burnham, Robert Kenyon Contest Lancashire Seat on 18 June

Voters in Makerfield, a collection of former mining towns and villages in north-west England, are preparing for a significant by-election on 18 June. The contest is not merely about electing a new Member of Parliament but carries wider implications for national politics, particularly for the Labour Party.

National Stakes in a Local Race

Labour candidate Andy Burnham, the current Mayor of Greater Manchester, has indicated he would pursue the Labour leadership should he win the Makerfield seat. This ambition pits him directly against Robert Kenyon, the candidate for Reform UK, who is campaigning on a platform asserting that 'Britain is broken'. While both candidates articulate a need for national change, local sentiment in Makerfield presents a more complex picture.

Despite pockets of prosperity, such as the regeneration efforts in Ashton-in-Makerfield, significant challenges persist in areas like Platt Bridge, Abram, and Hindley. Residents in these areas frequently express disillusionment, citing issues such as an unaddressed illegal waste dump in Bickershaw that has plagued residents with rats and a persistent acrid smell for nearly two years. Similarly, Platt Bridge has experienced two severe flooding incidents within a decade, leading to a profound sense of abandonment despite government allocations for flood defences.

Divides and Local Concerns

The constituency reflects a stark geographical divide, with more affluent areas to the west and more deprived communities to the east. This economic disparity contributes to the perception among many that the country's systems are failing them. Reform UK's campaign strategy capitalises on this sentiment, focusing on hyper-local issues and presenting Kenyon as an accessible 'normal' local, contrasting him with Burnham, whom some voters view as using Makerfield as a 'stepping stone' to higher office.

Burnham, however, has concentrated on local concerns during his campaign, emphasising his track record in Greater Manchester, including initiatives like cheaper bus fares, and engaging directly with undecided voters. The by-election's outcome, according to Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester, is a 'proxy prime ministerial election' that will either bolster Burnham's leadership credentials or provide significant momentum to Reform UK, with substantial risks for both parties.