Andy Burnham Receives Clear Path to Commons, Faces Major By-Election Hurdle in Makerfield

Andy Burnham's trajectory back to the House of Commons appears increasingly clear following the resignation of a Labour MP and an indication from Number 10 that it will not impede his candidacy. This marks a departure from earlier in the year, when Sir Keir Starmer reportedly blocked Burnham from standing in a by-election through the Labour National Executive Committee. The Prime Minister's current weakened authority, exacerbated by a substantial number of resignations and calls for his own departure within the party, likely precludes a repeat of such intervention.

Makerfield By-Election: A Pivotal Contest

Despite these internal realignments, the most formidable obstacle for Burnham remains securing victory in the Makerfield constituency. The previous general election saw Reform UK emerge as the second-largest party in Makerfield, securing nearly a third of the vote. More recently, in local elections, Reform UK demonstrated a significant surge, winning all 11 wards within the constituency and approximately half of the overall vote. Nigel Farage has explicitly stated that Reform UK will commit significant resources to this by-election, foreshadowing a contentious contest.

Internal Labour Dynamics and Unity Candidacy

The decision by Josh Simons, the outgoing Labour MP for Makerfield, to step aside for Burnham is particularly noteworthy, given Simons's close ties to the party's right wing and his association with figures like Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. This unexpected alignment has led Burnham's supporters to label him a 'unity' candidate, hoping to exert further pressure on Sir Keir to outline a timetable for his resignation. There are private indications across various Labour factions that support for Burnham's leadership bid would solidify should he secure the Makerfield seat. Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close confidante of Burnham, is expected to publicly endorse his return to Parliament, advocating for his inclusion alongside Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner as 'key players'.

However, this perceived unity is not universal. Prominent Labour figures, including Luke Akehurst, have expressed considerable displeasure, characterising the internal manoeuvring as self-serving and potentially destabilising for the party and the country. The by-election will serve as a crucial test for Burnham, who has previously sought the Labour leadership twice. A victory would allow him to claim a unique ability to reclaim voters from Reform UK, in stark contrast to Sir Keir's declining approval. The stakes are high, with the Labour leadership and, by extension, Number 10, as the ultimate prize.