Israelis Divided on Iran Ceasefire Amidst War Weariness
A recent survey by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem reveals a nation grappling with profound war weariness, yet paradoxically, two-thirds of Israelis oppose the current, precarious ceasefire with Iran. This sentiment emerges amidst a conflict initiated on 28 February by the United States and Israel, which launched extensive strikes on Iran, resulting in the deaths of Iran's Supreme Leader and hundreds of civilians, including 110 children at a primary school on the first day.
Public Disillusionment and Divisions
The poll, conducted on 9 and 10 April with 1,312 respondents, indicates that a significant portion of the Israeli public harbours deep scepticism regarding the efficacy of military actions against Iran. 'Despair' was cited by a third of respondents as their primary emotion, followed by 'confusion' and 'anger'. Despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's claims of 'huge achievements' and a changing Middle East, his opponents argue he has failed to realise key war goals, such as dismantling Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities or achieving regime change.
Divisions are also apparent regarding the continuation of hostilities: 39.5% advocate for renewed strikes on Tehran, while 41.4% believe the ceasefire should be upheld. A notable split exists between Israel's Jewish majority and Arab minority, with less than a fifth of Arab respondents supporting continued strikes on Iran, and earlier polls showing a significant majority of the Arab public favouring an immediate ceasefire.
The Lebanon Front and Diplomatic Efforts
The issue of Hezbollah in Lebanon presents another complex layer. While Pakistan and Iran maintain that Lebanon is included in the ceasefire, Israel, backed by the US, insists the conflict with Hezbollah is a separate battle requiring the eradication of the northern threat. Direct ambassadorial talks between Lebanon and Israel are scheduled in Washington D.C., an unprecedented diplomatic step given their lack of formal relations. However, significant breakthroughs are not widely anticipated. Reports suggest that Prime Minister Netanyahu only agreed to these talks after pressure from President Trump to de-escalate attacks on Lebanon following Israeli bombardments, which killed over 350 people, including a third women and children, in the hours after the Iran ceasefire commenced. Since fighting renewed on 2 March, Israeli airstrikes have killed over 2,000 people in Lebanon, while Hezbollah attacks have killed 12 Israeli soldiers and two civilians.
Political Implications
The handling of the conflict with Iran appears to have impacted Netanyahu's popularity ahead of parliamentary elections later this year. Some polls suggest a decline in support for his coalition, with his rival, former prime minister Naftali Bennett, seeing a slight increase in popularity. While Netanyahu's Likud party may remain the largest, his coalition is projected to fall short of a majority, hinting at a potentially turbulent political landscape in the coming months.
