Labour Forecast to Lose Senedd Control, Ending 27-Year Welsh Governance

Labour is expected to lose the Senedd election, according to multiple party sources, which would conclude its 27-year rule in Wales. The party has historically secured both Westminster and Cardiff Bay elections in the country for over a century, but recent opinion polls suggest Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are now competing for the top spot.

Huw Irranca-Davies, the Welsh government's Deputy First Minister, acknowledged the campaign had been "tough" for his party, though he did not concede the election. Voting concluded at 22:00 BST on Thursday, with the official count underway on Friday.

First Minister Eluned Morgan's seat is reportedly under threat, with some sources speculating the Welsh Labour leader may not return to the Senedd. While a Labour defeat was largely expected following poor performances in recent polling, a loss in Wales carries profound historical and political significance.

A former Welsh government minister suggested that if the results align with predictions, UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer should resign as prime minister. Both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK framed the election as a two-horse race, urging voters to support them over other parties. No single party is expected to achieve an outright majority of 49 seats under Wales' new proportional voting system.

After polls closed, Mr Irranca-Davies stated: "We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances." He attributed the mood for change to Labour's long tenure and ongoing cost-of-living pressures facing the populace.

Mick Antoniw, a former Welsh counsel general, described the election as the most challenging for Labour "in living memory," noting that the discourse appeared to focus more on "Downing Street and immigration than Wales." He stressed the need for a "progressive and stable government," likely requiring a "responsible partnership." Mr Antoniw further indicated that if results were as poor as anticipated, a "planned, orderly and open transition" in UK Labour leadership would be necessary.

Despite this, several Welsh Labour MPs have reportedly not anticipated a challenge to Sir Keir, though the mood within the party has been described as "at rock bottom." These figures called for bolder policies and a comprehensive review of the campaign's shortcomings. Labour sources reported negative feedback regarding the prime minister from voters on doorsteps, citing disillusionment compounded by domestic political issues.

A senior Welsh Labour figure characterised polling day as "awful," noting that long-term Labour voters had opted for Plaid Cymru, Reform, the Green Party, or abstained. They observed that Plaid Cymru's message of being the sole party to counter Reform had resonated, while Reform had capitalised on discontent with Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour government.

Nigel Farage, during Reform UK's campaign launch, explicitly framed the election as a "referendum on Starmer." A Labour defeat would signify a fundamental shift in Welsh politics, given the party's uninterrupted dominance since 1922 and its leadership of every Welsh government since the Senedd's establishment in 1999.

Should the defeat be confirmed, Labour in Wales is likely to undergo a period of intense introspection, seeking a new direction. However, depending on the final results, the party could still engage in talks with Plaid Cymru and other parties to form the next Welsh government. The outcome is also expected to influence the future of the prime minister, as Labour faces impending local elections in England and the Scottish Parliament election.

Following the closure of polls, Plaid Cymru expressed pride in its "positive and disciplined campaign," highlighting a "clear appetite for change" among the electorate. Reform UK affirmed its campaign was "based on putting the Welsh people first." The Welsh Liberal Democrats, who secured only one seat in 2021, voiced their commitment to fighting for "stronger local services, a fairer economy and a Wales where every community has the opportunity to thrive."